Kidney Failure Risk Equation (8 Variable)

Estimate risk of progression to end-stage renal disease in CKD patients using 8 variables.


The kidney failure risk equations were developed in patients with CKD stages G3-G5 referred to nephrologists in Canada, and have now been validated in more than 700,000 individuals spanning 30 + countries worldwide.

The four and eight variable equations accurately predict the 2 and 5 year probability of treated kidney failure (dialysis or transplantation) for a potential patient with CKD Stage 3 to 5. Predicted risks may differ from observed risks in clinical populations with lower and higher observed risks than the study population, and a calibration factor for non-North American cohorts has been added.

Determining the probability of kidney failure may be useful for patient and provider communication, triage and management of nephrology referrals and timing of dialysis access placement and living related kidney transplant. Prospective trials evaluating the utility of this instrument for clinical decision making are in progress.


Tangri N, Stevens LA, Griffith J, et al.

JAMA: the Journal of the American Medical Association 2011 April 20, 305 (15): 1553-9

Tangri N, Grams ME, Levey AS et al.

JAMA: the Journal of the American Medical Association 2016 January 12, 315 (2): 164-74

Copyright © 2011, 2016 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.

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