COVID-19 Prognostic Tool
Estimate mortality rates in patients with COVID-19. Adapted from CDC materials.
This tool is based on data from the CDC Interim Clinical Guidance for Management of Patients with Confirmed Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). Accessed on April 7, 2020.
The CDC references a report from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, updated through February 11, 2020. In this report, a total of 44,672 case records were classified as confirmed cases of COVID-19 (through positive viral nucleic acid throat swab samples.)
The overall case-fatality rate was 2.3% (1023 deaths among 44,672 confirmed cases.) Age was a strong risk factor for severe illness, complications, and death with the case fatality rate being highest among older persons. In addition, the case-fatality rate was elevated among those with pre-existing comorbid conditions such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, hypertension, and cancer.
The American data comes from a CDC Report titled Severe Outcomes Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) — United States, February 12–March 16, 2020. In this report, a total of 4,226 COVID-19 cases in the United States that occurred during February 12–March 16, 2020 were analyzed by age group. Overall, 80% of deaths associated with COVID-19 were among adults aged ≥65 years with the highest percentage of severe outcomes among persons aged ≥85 years. In contrast, no ICU admissions or deaths were reported among persons aged ≤19 years. Similar to reports from other countries, this finding suggests that the risk for serious disease and death from COVID-19 is higher in older age groups.
Management of Patients with Confirmed 2019-NCoV.
CDC COVID-19 Response Team.
Wu Z, McGoogan JM.