The sixth vital sign: prehospital end-tidal carbon dioxide predicts in-hospital mortality and metabolic disturbances.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the ability of prehospital end-tidal carbon dioxide (ETCO₂) to predict in-hospital mortality compared to conventional vital signs.

METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among patients transported by emergency medical services during a 29-month period. Included patients had ETCO₂ recorded in addition to initial vital signs. The main outcome was death at any point during hospitalization. Secondary outcomes included laboratory results and admitting diagnosis.

RESULTS: Of 1328 records reviewed, hospital discharge data, ETCO₂, and all 6 prehospital vital signs were available in 1088 patients. Low ETCO₂ levels were the strongest predictor of mortality in the overall group (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC of 0.76, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.66-0.85), as well as subgroup analysis excluding prehospital cardiac arrest (AUC of 0.77, 95% CI 0.67-0.87). The sensitivity of abnormal ETCO₂ for predicting mortality was 93% (95% CI 79%-98%), the specificity was 44% (95% CI 41%-48%), and the negative predictive value was 99% (95% CI 92%-100%). There were significant associations between ETCO₂ and serum bicarbonate levels (r = 0.429, P < .001), anion gap (r = -0.216, P < .001), and lactate (r = -0.376, P < .001).

CONCLUSION: Of all prehospital vital signs, ETCO₂ was the most predictive and consistent for mortality, which may be related to an association with metabolic acidosis.